Transformers: the "haze" of overcapacity
"the annual production capacity of transformers in China has reached 3 billion KVA, which can fully meet the needs of the global market!" Is that a boast? No, no, this is self mockery
in recent three years, the annual demand of transformers in China, the only national engineering laboratory in the field of coating, adhesive and other surface materials in China, is about 1.3 billion kVA. However, the production capacity of 3 billion KVA has brought the problem of "digestion" gb1499.2 (2) 007/xg1-2009 steel for reinforced concrete Part 2: hot rolled ribbed steel bars No. 1 amendment to the national standard;. The transformer industry is facing a severe situation of overcapacity. The nearly 1:3 contradiction between supply and demand has also become the "initiator" of the chaotic industry order and market competition, which was particularly prominent in 2011
the qualified rate is less than 70%
in the past few years, China's power construction has developed rapidly, and the demand for transformers has increased rapidly, resulting in a considerable number of domestic transformer enterprises rapidly expanding their production capacity, and even doubling the production capacity of individual enterprises. Since 2009, the national power construction has slowed down, and the domestic transformer demand has decreased. In particular, the state-owned company and Nanfang company used centralized bidding to purchase transformers, and the low price bid resulted in unprecedented fierce competition among enterprises
after that, the general economic benefits of domestic transformer enterprises have decreased significantly, and many enterprises are at the edge of loss or loss. A large number of distribution transformer enterprises even have the situation of malicious competition at the expense of product quality. As a result, the quality of transformer products decreased and the accident rate increased. The qualified rate of distribution transformer is only 70%. The accident rate of transformers in operation on the power grid is on the rise. Most transformers have been produced in recent 5 years, and their electrical safety is threatened
in September, 2011, the AQSIQ held a quality analysis meeting for national supervision and random inspection of power transformer products in Dongguan, Guangdong Province. According to the results of the meeting, the AQSIQ conducted a random inspection of 29 products from 29 enterprises, of which 20 products were qualified and 9 products were unqualified. The qualified rate of product sampling was 69.0%. There is little difference among the product qualification rates of large, medium and small enterprises. The product sampling qualification rate of large enterprises is 75.0%, while that of small and medium enterprises is 63.6% and 71.4% respectively
compared with the sampling number of national supervision and random inspection from 2009 to 2010, the sample number is the same, and the qualification rate of three times is close, about 70% ~ 80%. It can be seen that the qualification rate of national supervision and random inspection of power transformers is not high, and the qualification rate of last year still decreased significantly. According to the analysis report: "This is because the national supervision and random inspection of power transformers in the past three years are mainly focused on small and medium-sized power transformers with 10KV voltage level, which is complementary to improving the energy utilization efficiency of the plastic granulator process and preventing and controlling environmental pollution. The production enterprises of some products are mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, and the number of enterprises in each random inspection is only a small part of the total number of enterprises in the country, indicating that the number of domestic small and medium-sized enterprises The product quality problems of small and medium capacity power transformers are more prominent. "
the analysis meeting pointed out several adverse phenomena affecting product quality: "substituting aluminum for copper", contract fraud, aluminum wire can be used as transformer coil, "reuse of secondary sheet", magnetic conductivity, surface insulation, loss, excessive noise, transformer capacity "short weight", etc
take the secondary sheet as an example. After more than 10 years of operation of the transformer, the internal magnetic properties and surface insulation layer of silicon steel sheet have changed fundamentally. Re welding and stacking them will increase the magnetic resistance and damage the surface again, which is bound to cause unstable quality hidden dangers such as high noise, no-load current and large no-load loss
these reasons have hidden dangers for transformer safety
the "embarrassment" under overcapacity
it was learned in the interview that people pointed the spearhead of the low product qualification rate at the bidding method of "winning the bid at a low price" of power companies, for which this journal has also made a special report. It is gratifying that, under the appeal of many parties, the two major power companies have changed the way of "fixing the world by price" in the past, and have changed to a more fair and transparent "winning the bid at the middle price"
it is reasonable to say that after the change of bidding method, the market orientation has gradually changed from emphasizing price to emphasizing quality. However, why is there still the phenomenon that "sales price and production cost are 'upside down'?"
insiders tell us that transformers are currently facing serious pressure of overcapacity. Under the large gap between supply and demand, who will write high priced bids in the bidding process
according to incomplete estimation, at present, the total production capacity of the three local brands of TBEA, Baoding Tianwei and China XD is about 600million kVA. With the production capacity of manufacturers of 500 kV, 220 kV, 110 kV and below 110 kV, the total production capacity of China's transformer industry is about 3 billion kVA. However, the annual market demand is only about 1.3 billion kVA. The naked contradiction between supply and demand makes enterprises have to sell their own interests in the market competition
insiders told Electric China: "many companies are still afraid to show the real price in the bidding process, so the so-called 'middle price' on average still can not reflect the overall level of the industry, but what else can we do?"
in the past, some industry experts proposed that "from the perspective of industry justice, calculate the transformer cost for users' reference, so as to curb the vicious competition of low price competition". This method has really been supported by many people in the industry. However, because different companies have different design principles, financing costs, and the minimum load (the minimum load after the first landing) displayed on the labor display is the yield load FS cost, it is difficult to reach a "middle price" recognized by all parties
in the current environment, LiuJie, President of Shenyang Transformer Research Institute, believes that, At present, the transformer industry must solve the following three problems: "first, relevant national departments, federations, associations and enterprises should work together to change the bid winning from low price to the bid winning at or above the guaranteed price (range) of the lowest quality cost of products. Second, the country and the industry should strengthen the supervision and management of product quality. Third, the enterprise should strengthen self-discipline, safeguard the honor of the enterprise and the industry, and resolutely put an end to the bad behavior of shoddy products."
in the face of such a severe situation of overcapacity, where will the future development of transformers go
in this regard, Zhang Lichao, director of the science and Technology Department of the Ministry of industry and information technology, He said, "for example, considering the global environment, China may increase the proportion of renewable energy in the future. At present, both China and South Africa are studying light DC. These are new trends, and it is worth discussing what changes will be brought to the transformer industry. In addition, the energy conservation and emission reduction indicators have been clearly issued to all ministries and commissions, provinces (cities) Therefore, it is the consensus of all parties to further improve the efficiency of power generation and transmission. The energy-saving target of the Ministry of industry and information technology is 18%. If this target is to be achieved, industrial industries, including the power industry, will also be the focus. "
therefore, under these new circumstances, transformer enterprises should pay attention to adjusting product structure, following market changes, highlighting technical advantages, and making every dollar precise and specialized. Only in this way can they take the initiative in the market environment of "overcapacity"