Prediction of the price trend of national waste ye

2022-08-19
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Prediction of the price trend of national waste yellow paperboard in the second quarter of 2019

release date: Source: zhuochuang paper browsing times: 6304 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: since 2019, the price fluctuation of national waste yellow paperboard is limited, showing a weak and volatile situation. Compared with the same period in 2018, the price trend has been significantly differentiated since March. Especially as may approaches, due to the sharp rise in prices in May last year, how will prices develop in the second quarter of this year? From the analysis of supply and demand factors:

[China Packaging News] since 2019, the price fluctuation of national waste yellow paperboard has been limited, showing a weak and volatile situation. Compared with the same period in 2018, the price trend has been significantly differentiated since March. Especially near may, due to the sharp rise in prices in May last year, how will prices develop in the second quarter of this year? From the analysis of supply and demand factors:

supply

1 Foreign waste paper imports continued to decline

so far in 2019, there have been 6 batches of foreign waste approval, with a total approval of 7.9835 million tons, accounting for 43.97% of the total approved in 2018. Customs data showed that by the end of March, the total import volume of foreign waste was 3.2893 million tons, a decrease of 16.29% over the same period last year

2. The import volume of foreign waste pulp increased significantly

from 650billion yuan in 2010 to nearly 200billion yuan in 2015. "Under the situation of foreign waste import volume, the import volume of waste pulp increased significantly in 2019. According to customs data, a total of 82800 tons were imported by the end of March 2019, an increase of 395.81% over the same period last year

3. Domestic waste paper recycling volume is normal

the operation is convenient and labor-saving

according to zhuochuang information research, after experiencing huge price fluctuations in the previous two years, some suppliers have made large losses due to speculative hoarding operations. This year, the mentality of suppliers has generally turned cautious, hoarding speculation has decreased, and the delivery volume and waste paper inventory of paper mills are generally at a normal level

real time data forwarding experimental results can only be judged, the retrieval of experimental results, data analysis and statistical requirements

1 The first quarter is the off-season for the demand of finished paper. From late February to early March, due to the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the paper mills concentrated on returning to the market for production and downstream replenishment demand. The demand for waste paper and finished paper is acceptable, and the price is stable and developing well. However, since the middle of March, due to the weak demand, the sales of finished paper have been blocked, and the price has been declining. Especially in April, the market led by Nine Dragons Paper industry has rarely experienced three consecutive falls, which is evident in the pressure of finished paper warehouse out of paper enterprises. According to zhuochuang information, at present, there is still pressure on the delivery of finished paper from many paper mills, and the inventory is about one month's output. In this case, although the current arrival volume of waste paper in the paper mill is general, the operating rate of the paper mill is insufficient, the interest in waste paper procurement is relatively light, and the consumption of waste paper inventory is also slow

2. The import volume of finished paper increased

due to the sharp rise in the price of domestic finished paper in the previous two years, the import volume of foreign finished paper increased steadily. At present, it is also the focus of the market. There are many introductions to the experience and calculation formula of the relationship between the surface roughness of experimental machine parts and the dimensional tolerance of experimental machine parts. According to customs data, the cumulative import volume of corrugated paper in 2019 was 202900 tons, an increase of 78.77% year-on-year; The cumulative import of carton board paper was about 410100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 19.32%

according to the data, although the import volume of finished paper increased significantly, the total import volume still accounted for a small proportion of domestic waste paper production. According to zhuochuang information, due to the current light demand for finished paper in the domestic market, the price continues to decline. At present, the price of imported corrugated paper is lower than that of domestic corrugated paper by yuan/ton, while the price of box board paper is usually higher than that of domestic finished paper because of its high wood pulp content and good quality. Therefore, the import volume of finished paper will increase significantly in the short term, which is unlikely to replace domestic finished paper, and the impact on the domestic market is limited

outlook

it is expected that the price of waste paper will fluctuate in a narrow range in the second quarter. In terms of supply, it is basically a foregone conclusion that the import of foreign waste is reduced, and the import of waste pulp has increased significantly, but the overall import volume of both is still significantly reduced. However, looking back at the previous two years, the price of waste paper rose sharply, and the foreign waste import restriction policy was issued for the first time and a series of amendments were the main reasons. After two years of market digestion, the foreign waste policy has tended to be improved, and the marginal influence factors of the news have weakened. Therefore, it is unlikely that the price will rise again, and because the domestic waste paper price has fallen sharply, the foreign waste price is also falling synchronously. At the same time, due to the impact of the Sino US trade station last year, domestic export goods decreased significantly, and the demand for packaging paper decreased significantly. Therefore, although the import volume of foreign waste decreased significantly by 33.79% year-on-year, the price of finished paper and waste paper still fell sharply in the third and fourth quarters, so the reduction of foreign waste is not enough to lead to a sharp rise in domestic waste paper

in terms of demand, the economic downturn this year has not changed. So far, there is no sign of improvement in Sino US trade disputes, and the trade export situation is still severe. And the second quarter of finished paper itself is in the low season of industry demand, and the short-term demand for finished paper is still difficult to be optimistic. To sum up, it is expected that the sharp rise in the price of yellow paperboard in the second quarter may not be large, and the price is mainly fluctuating within the range of 200 yuan/ton

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