Prediction of the development situation of domesti

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In March 2012, the prediction of the development situation of the domestic steel market

flashed, and February was over. Under the restriction of sluggish demand, China's steel market, except for some varieties such as medium and heavy plates, stopped falling and stabilized, continued the decline of last year as a whole, and the thread screw once fell below the 4000 mark; Shipments fell by about 30% year-on-year compared with last year. At the end of the month, the central bank made a positive adjustment, and the steel price fell into consolidation again after several days of rebound

according to the monitoring of China's steel spot market, a well-known domestic steel spot trading platform, (1) excess capacity and insufficient demand coexist. As of February 24, China's major markets Ф The average price of 25mm grade III deformed steel bar was 4297 yuan, up 4 yuan; Ф The average price of 6.5mm high-speed wire was 4192 yuan, up 3 yuan; The average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coil was 4249 yuan, up 7 yuan; 1 to the whole process of regeneration The average price of 0mm cold plate was 5214 yuan, flat; The average price of 20mm plate was 4266 yuan, up 13 yuan. On the whole, the steel price has experienced a week of rising market, but the strength of rising on the weekend has weakened. The author believes that this round of retaliatory rise has temporarily ended, and then it will enter the consolidation wait-and-see stage

then, it is said that March is spring, and everything begins to spit new. Whether the long-awaited Chinese steel market can usher in new changes, and whether the long-awaited downstream demand will be called upon, most of the market are optimistic. On the whole, the mentality of businesses is temporarily stabilized. The author tries to discuss the possible changes in the steel market in March from the following aspects

19million tons of inventory peaked in March, the steel market was under great pressure to destock

according to the statistics of China Steel Association, as of late February, the social inventory of domestic steel exceeded the 19million tons mark, an increase of nearly 800000 tons over the same period last year. There may be doubts that it has only increased by 800000 tons, and the pressure is not great. Once the demand is released, the de stocking can be completed immediately. Here, the author needs to remind that the environment faced by 19million tons of steel inventory has fundamentally changed

in previous years, one to two months after the Spring Festival was seen as a small peak of destocking. The downstream industry faced the production plan for the new year, the purchase volume was liberalized in the short term, and destocking was relatively good. In 2011, it benefited from the huge demand expectation of 10million affordable housing projects, which also enabled the market to maintain a good attitude under the pressure of high inventory, strong bullish will, and inventory can go. However, the situation in spring 2012 is relatively special. First of all, the seasonal cold weather is delayed by about one month compared with last year. By March, when the Spring Festival in previous years just ended, but now the market has been open for more than one month, and the mentality has fallen into fatigue. Secondly, it is also due to the decline in demand for steel in the downstream industry due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth; Even if the weather improved in March and the downstream demand increased, it is estimated that the degree of its release will be far lower than that of the same period in 2011

we do not expect steel exports to rebound significantly in the next two months. Steel exports will continue to maintain a weak level. Coupled with the continuous anti-dumping investigations of the United States and the European Union on Chinese steel, it is estimated that the future export situation will be more severe, and it is difficult to share the pressure of domestic oversupply

the PMI manufacturing index released the signal of sluggish demand in February

the estimated value of the PMI index in February rebounded. We can't just look at the surface data, because the biggest driving force of this rebound is the manufacturing output value. At the same time, the finished product inventory index also continued to increase significantly, that is, the recovery of production did not bring about the recovery of consumption, and all returned to inventory, indicating that the overall demand in the downstream is still low. On the whole, it is mostly negative

domestic consumption has not risen, and the index of new export orders has shrunk, indicating that our industrial export situation is not optimistic, and the future development situation is also very severe. In this case, the increase in output has become a chicken rib, and the reasonable control of various industrial production capacity, the government continues to issue stimulus policies, in order to ensure the stable development of the economy in the later stage. In a word, expand domestic demand to the real point, and stimulate exports as soon as possible

in this case, for the steel industry, it also indicates that the downstream demand release is obviously at a low point in February, and the increase in the inventory of the downstream industry also indicates that its production capacity may be controlled in the later stage, and the release of steel demand will continue to maintain a low level

based on the current information about downstream industries, including real estate engineering and railway construction, lithium manganate batteries account for the highest proportion of new energy passenger cars in the recommended catalogue, and nearly 80% of enterprises in infrastructure and other industries have not yet started work, which are in the waiting stage. At the same time, machinery manufacturing, shipbuilding, home appliance automobile and other industries have poor sales and low enthusiasm for manufacturers to start new projects. On the other hand, whether it is export orders Still, the domestic sales situation continues to remain at a low ebb, and it is difficult to recover significantly in the short term. If the temperature rises in March and the weather improves in time, we agree that there will be a certain amount of demand; However, it is difficult to reach the level of the same period in 2011, and the pressure of de stocking in March remains

the financing difficulties of steel traders in the late stage, the tense situation of funds persists

the situation of the whole steel industry is bad, and the funds are occupied by inventories for a long time. At present, almost all steel traders in the whole market are facing the embarrassing situation of lack of liquidity. Although the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points at the end of February and released funds of 400billion yuan, the remaining liquidity funds after hedging are only about 100billion yuan, This has little practical effect on the market

judging from the current situation of the steel market, the advance of steel traders is relatively serious, and almost half of the working capital is occupied by inventory and engineering, so the situation of market capital is relatively tight. Coupled with the continuous negative news that Yizhou steel boss owed 1billion yuan to run away some time ago, the situation of steel traders running away continues to appear, which is almost related to the rupture of the capital chain. In addition, with the increase of bank restrictions on loans in the field of steel trade, some banks can't even get in and out, and significantly reduce the lending in the field of steel trade, which directly leads to the financing difficulties of the steel industry. Although the bank discount rate has been significantly reduced and is at a relatively low level, But in general, the lack of money in the field of steel trade is still very serious

according to the current macroeconomic news, the direction of the country's adherence to the implementation of fine-tuning in stability will not change, that is, it is almost impossible for us to obtain the easing of funds in the future. Under the condition of continued relative shortage of funds, steel traders will face a relatively concentrated repayment period in March, requiring a large amount of cash, so in March, The willingness of merchants to take the initiative to reduce prices and ship goods for cash out may be much stronger than that in February, which is not conducive to the rise of steel prices

based on the above, the author believes that in the upcoming steel market in March, the steel price on the whole may slowly bottom and recover due to the relative release of demand, but how much room it can rise depends on the release of downstream demand at that time. One thing is certain that in March, the overall trend of plate may still be stronger than that of long products; The market needs to pay close attention to the dynamic changes in the international market and the release of downstream demand. Instead, the price of raw materials should be in the current position to maintain a shock consolidation process, there will be no great changes

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